Our future, and our future prosperity, are inevitably in Asia.
Julia Gillard pointed to this in 2012 when she launched the Australia in the Asian Century White Paper, saying whatever else this century brings, it will bring Asia's return to global leadership, Asias rise. This is not only unstoppable, it is gathering pace.
As ASEAN celebrates its 50th anniversary of founding this month, we should recall ASEANs immense contribution to Asias rise and look to the future of both ASEANs and Australias place in the region.
For Australia, the geo in geostrategic has been critical to both defining our place in the world, and to our economic prosperity. Over 20 years ago, former Prime Minister Paul Keating said Australia needs to seek its security in Asia rather than from Asia. Today, as we reap the benefits of over 25 years of uninterrupted growth, in no small part due to our geographic position in relation to Asia, we ought to consider how best to engage with ASEAN to ensure Australias prosperity and security over the next 25 years.
Our national economic performance is shaped by our capacity to trade and engage globally. This is a fact Australians understand, as evinced by the Lowy Institutes recent annual poll. Perhaps counterintuitively, 78 per cent of Australians think globalisation is good for Australia, and 67 per cent think open trade is good for their own standard of living.
Considering how to best advance Australias economic security agenda in our region remains a critical task for a future Labor government. My colleague Chris Bowen, Labors Shadow Treasurer has already made the case for a step change on our economic engagement with Asia, and with ASEAN in particular. This would contribute to higher growth for Australia by addressing how we as nation treat the opportunities of the growing middle class of Asia. ASEAN is a natural partner in this endeavour, with the full potential of Australias engagement with ASEAN having not yet been realised.
Since 8 August 1967, ASEAN has gone from a group of five nations interested in regional cooperation to a group of ten nations with a global role, doubling in size and exponentially increasing in influence.
ASEAN has made critical contributions to prosperity and stability in Southeast Asia since its formation. According to IMF estimates, ASEANs GDP in 2017 will be just under $2.9 trillion larger than the GDP of India. Globally, ASEAN is already the seventh-largest market and the third-largest labour force, and by 2030 ASEAN is projected to be the worlds fourth-largest economic bloc.
Its fair to say that ASEAN has exceeded the expectations of its founders, and become even more critical both economically and in terms of regional security. Kishore Mahbubani rightly asserts that ASEANs success in strategic diplomacy over the past 50 years has been one of the most undersold stories of our time.
The continuing development of Southeast Asian regionalism through institutions like ASEAN aligns with Australias interests our security interests, our economic interests, our regional interests, and our interest in constructive internationalism, supporting the continued development of an international rules-based order. It was a Labor Government, under Gough Whitlam, who originally negotiated for Australia to be an ASEAN dialogue partner, and a future Labor Government would similarly seek to advance Australia-ASEAN relations.
Labor has welcomed the Turnbull Governments intention to hold an ASEAN-Australia leaders summit in 2018, but this alone is not enough. At this time of change, as we face unprecedented disruption to the global order and changing regional dynamics, ASEAN remains critical for the region and Australia needs to engage deeply with both the individual ASEAN countries and with the institution. The centrality of ASEAN to the shape and stability of the regional order is confirmed by Chinas increasing engagement with ASEAN members.
We need to make maximum use of the 2018 ASEAN-Australia leaders summit, driving a robust agenda. We need strong integration into the ASEAN institution, in a regularised way. We need to take a strategic approach to our relations with Singapore and Indonesia, an approach which reflects a considered long-term view of our regional interests. We have to consciously and methodically build stronger, multilayered relations with other key ASEAN countries including Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Myanmar.
The imperative to do so reaches beyond the economic and security case, it is about setting an agenda for Australias future in Asia. As I have said previously, Australia needs a better road map in Asia.
Its critical that we get it right with ASEAN.
This Opinion Piece was first publised in The Interpreter by the Lowy Institute on 8 August 2017.