CEDA 2012 Economic & Political Overview - Adelaide - 24/02/2012

24 February 2012

Its a pleasure to be here, and I thank CEDA for inviting me to speak again this year.
Last year, I spoke about the importance of the long-term and the importance of implementing the right reforms today, to see us prosper tomorrow.
When I spoke here last year, I set out the Gillard Governments reform agenda.
About our plans to put a price on carbon and secure a clean energy future.
About our plans to see all Australians benefit from the mining boom, through the implementation of the Minerals Resource Rent Tax.
About our plans for investing in the productive capacity of our country and our people, through new initiatives in infrastructure and skills.
About implementing the reforms needed to improve our hospitals and our schools.
About the importance of a strong budget, and the need to return to surplus in 2012-13.
About our vision for a fairer society.
Driven by an understanding of the importance of positioning Australian for the long term, these reforms are underpinned by a strong sense of direction.
They are all grounded in a belief that, with the right policies in place, we can secure jobs and growth for the decades to come.
But it is one thing to talk of reform, it is another to deliver.
And the Gillard Government has delivered.
In the 12 months since I stood here last year, we have implemented reforms that will see Australia a stronger and fairer society and productive and more flexible economy.
But we cannot stand still.
As international forces shape our domestic economy, the changes that will occur in Australia and in South Australia will be significant.
They will bring profound opportunities, but also challenges.
They will require readjustment and adaptability.
And that is why the Gillard Government is investing today, so that we will be able to grasp these opportunities and make the most of whats to come.
Today I want to take this opportunity to outline the reform agenda the Gillard Government has delivered over the past 12 months.
And look ahead at the forces which are shaping our economy and are going to continue to shape our economy and how our Government is positioning the country for the future.
As Ive said, since I spoke here last year, the Government has delivered significant reforms.
These have been underpinned by a reform philosophy that requires government and politicians to make the tough decisions today, for tomorrow.
Under Prime Minister Gillard, we will see a price on carbon from July 1 this year.
We are acting on climate change.
Something that has been long talked about, something which was not able to be passed in the last Parliament, is now in legislation.
Because we cannot be a first rate economy unless we also have a clean energy economy.
And, where the Clean Energy Package will see our economy transformed, we also need to spread the benefits of this once-in-a-century mining boom.
The Gillard Government has navigated the passage of the Minerals Resource Rent Tax legislation through the House of Representatives.
Against sustained opposition, this reform will see the benefits of the boom spread to all Australians.
It will reduce the company tax rate across the board, and significantly reduce the tax burden for small business.
It will improve the superannuation holdings of working Australians.
And it will see significant investment in infrastructure necessary to support the expansion of the mining sector.
In the past 12 months we have also made significant investments in the human capital of our country.
In the skills, education and training that will be required to see our economy prosper over the coming generations.
In the last Budget, we announced a $3.5 billion investment in skills.
To build on the success of this investment, Prime Minister Gillard will be taking a package of reforms to COAG in April to ensure that productivity and participation are the hallmarks of our labour market.
These reforms have been guided by two overarching principles.
The first is fairness.
This is an enduring Labor ideal that has guided our Government, just as it has guided Labor Governments in the past.
Whether it is the successful passage of means testing the public health insurance rebate, or equal pay for certain social and community workers, our Government is determined to see a fairer Australia.
The second is the importance of a strong budget.
Despite the lingering effects of the global financial crisis and the 2011 natural disasters, the Gillard Government has been able to deliver reform within a strict fiscal framework.
The Government has a clear plan to return the Budget to surplus in 2012-13.
The common theme that draws the reforms of the last 12 months together is a determination to get the job done.
Because reform is not an easy task.
It requires determination and perseverance.
It requires a commitment to see reform through to the end.
It requires a firm understanding that Australias future must be secured through the reforms we implement today.
The Gillard Government has a track record of getting the hard reforms done.
But we cannot rest.
We cannot afford to stand still.
The speed of economic change will require a similar level of commitment to ensure that we manage the boom successfully and that we make the most of the opportunities before us.
We live in a time of change.
In the global economy, in the domestic economy, but more importantly in the day-to-day lives of Australians.
And we need to understand what this change means.
An element of this is the uncertainty in Europe, and below trend growth in the US, the lingering effects of the GFC and the 2011 natural disasters.
But these elements need to be seen against the broader changes that are underway in our economy.
Driven by international forces, our economy and our country are being transformed.
But before I discuss these changes and the impact they are having, I think we should first dispel the idea that change is something new.
Australias history and success is a story that is built on change.
We were once an economy that rode on a sheeps back.
Now, we have a diverse economy; agriculture, manufacturing, tourism, education, telecommunications, mining, to name but a few.
We once believed that we could somehow inoculate ourselves from global forces.
Now, we understand that in a globalised world, events overseas do have an impact on our economy and that we can benefit immensely from it.
And in the 1980s we deregulated markets, lowered tariffs and floated the dollar.
We once discouraged women from entering or staying in paid work.
Now, we see the benefits of keeping women engaged in employment and, under the leadership of Prime Minister Gillard, this Government introduced the first Paid Parental Leave Scheme which came into effect at the start of this year.
30 years ago, participation of women in work was less than one in two.
Today, two thirds of women are in the workforce.
The great change of our time lies in our neighbourhood in the global economic re-alignment as growth shifts from western economies to our region.
A change that has been accelerated by the current difficulties facing Europe and the US.
A change that will define our nations prosperity for decades ahead.
Change provides opportunity for some to exploit community anxieties.
So it might be helpful for us to recall a simple fact; that trade and Asia is a part of our history, as well as our future.
In the 1930s, Japan was a significant trading partner for Australia, our second largest export market after the United Kingdom at the time and in 1969, 25 percent of our exports went to Japan, compared to only 12 percent going to Britain.
Indeed, since 1945, when Prime Minister Ben Chifley strongly supported Indian and Indonesian independence, Australia has realised the importance of trade with Asia.
Under Gough Whitlam, Australias trade relationship with China benefited from improved diplomatic relations, and at the end of the Vietnam War, Whitlam extended trade access for Australian businesses to South Korea and Taiwan.
Indeed, it has always been Labor Governments who have opened Australias eyes to the region.
As Treasurer and Prime Minister, Paul Keating focused on improving Australias competiveness, particularly by lowering tariffs in the region, and he was pivotal in progressing APEC from an informal meeting to a regular meeting of heads of governments.
And, today, China, Japan, the Republic of Korea , India and our other south-east Asian neighbours, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and the ASEAN-5, buy around 75 percent of Australias exports.
In 2010, the value of total trade in Australias goods and services with East Asia was $302.9 billion.
The RBA in February noted that growth in emerging markets, particularly in Asia, is expected to be stronger than the advanced economies.
According to the RBA, Australias main trading partners are estimated to grow by 1 percentage point more than global GDP, as forecast by the IMF, in 2012 and 2013.
And it is this growth that Australia can capitalise on.
As the populations of these developing economies become wealthier, as their spending patterns change and their take-up of technology and goods increases, Australia is perfectly positioned.
There are approximately 500 million people in the Asia-Pacific, excluding North America, who would currently be categorised as middle-class.
This is forecast to rise to around 1.7 billion by 2020 and 3.2 billion by 2030.
Thats 3.2 billion people who will be looking to purchase sophisticated goods and services they never looked at before.
They will travel more and seek education opportunities here in Australia.
Increased urbanisation will see greater demand for Australias minerals and energy.
Larger and wealthier populations will require more food food which Australia can supply.
This represents significant opportunities for Australia.
Opportunities to continue to grow our economy, to create jobs, to secure our future prosperity.
Our proximity, our existing relationships and our export potential, puts us in a unique position to further benefit from the advancement of Asian economies.
We can be optimistic for Australian success in the Asian Century.
But we also know success is rarely the result of luck, but rather the product of hard work and good decisions.
The key test of todays leaders is how can we use change to our advantage?
Because the choice is never between change and the status quo, it is always how to handle change.
It is about understanding change, embracing it and, ultimately, benefiting from it.
Thats why the Government recently commissioned a White Paper to be released later this year, to consider the likely changes and economic benefits the Asian Century may bring, and what Australia needs to do to best position itself.
Of course, such change will not be without its challenges and the White Paper will look at those issues also.
This Government is focused now on what lies ahead, and this Government is implementing policies for the future now, so that we are in the best position possible to meet this change with confidence.
Because it is the core business of government to make the right economic and policy choices.
Policies that support jobs, that enable growth and that build a better future.
And we take these responsibilities seriously.
Every year, around 300,000 firms go out of business in Australia.
But at the same time, the same number of new businesses start up.
So, recognising this, we want to improve the ability of businesses to take advantage of the new opportunities; to support individuals; and boost our economys productivity and competitiveness.
Policy must be forward-thinking. We must embrace reform.
We must see change as an opportunity, not something to be feared.
And there can be a role for Government to assist industries to meet this change providing them with support so that they can be competitive in the future.
The automotive industry, for example, employs almost 50,000 Australians directly and at least 200,000 in related manufacturing and service industries.
This Government is committed to the auto industry and thats why weve invested $5.4 billion to help fund investment and innovation through the New Car Plan.
By contrast, the Opposition wants to cut $1.5 billion from this funding.
Yet another example of their economic recklessness.
In recent weeks, there have been announcements of significant job losses due to the high dollar, due to increased competition and because the economy overall is transitioning.
Thats why the Gillard Government is providing key tools to Australians through education, through better access to training, through support for business, through investments in infrastructure to set us up for the future.
This Government has invested nearly $11 billion in skills training and more than 97,000 apprentices started a trade in the past 12 months.
And we have doubled the amount spent on schools nearly $65 billion over four years.
The National Broadband Network is being rolled out around the country, which will help businesses be more productive regardless of where they are located, and truly put Australian enterprises on the world stage.
With the roll-out of the NBN, a report by Deloitte Access Economics found that the direct contribution of the internet to the economy will increase by 40 per cent to $70 billion by 2016.
Were investing $37 billion in rail, roads and ports which will make doing business easier for Australian enterprises.
At the core of this, in line with Labor values, is that we want to ensure that there is fairness and equity for all Australians so that everyone has the opportunity to participate and share benefits.
We are implementing our seamless national economy agenda, reducing costs for business in complying with unnecessary and inconsistent regulation across jurisdictions.
The 27 deregulation reform priorities of the Government standard business reporting, a national business names register, national construction code, uniform Occupational Health and Safety laws, to name a few, will reduce red-tape for business, increase productivity and enable an efficient economy.
Over half of these deregulation reforms are complete, with the remainder due between now and the end of 2012.
And the benefits from these reforms are significant.
The Productivity Commission reported that just 17 of the deregulation reforms will lower business costs by $4 billion each year when fully implemented, and improvements to productivity could increase GDP by about 0.4%.
The Gillard Government has a vision for the future.
We are thinking about the long term and thinking about what it means for us today.
We are looking through the boom.
We are thinking about the next generation.
We are focussed on ensuring we have the right fiscal policy settings in place, for now and for the years to come.
We are determined to bring the budget back to surplus in 2012-13.
This is, of course, in stark contrast to the alternate government who, between them, cant seem to agree if or when they would deliver a surplus.
In the past fortnight alone weve heard the language change from We will to It depends to We will in our first year to When we have a strong surplus.
When it comes to managing the nations $370 billion budget, its not something you talk about on a whim.
It requires discipline and responsibility.
It means making the tough decisions.
It means prioritising policies.
As a South Australian and given were in Adelaide, I do want to talk about South Australia and how I believe it is ideally placed to benefit from the Asian Century.
South Australia has a highly skilled, productive and flexible workforce.
And where our key industries have historically been in manufacturing and agriculture, there is now new opportunity to enter new sectors and maximise our resource potential.
I dont need to reiterate in this room the potential of the Olympic Dam.
This potential doesnt just come from the port, rail and desalination plans.
There are also likely to be sizeable spin-off benefits in technical training and higher education and in adding to our existing strengths in manufacturing.
South Australia is a highly-cost competitive environment thats perfect for trade and business development.
We have a cluster of first class universities with excellent links into the business community to build the competencies of the young and to provide a range of re-skilling and training opportunities for those in the workforce looking to develop their skills to exploit new opportunities.
Our sophisticated education infrastructure from schools through to our universities is one of the key public assets in South Australia.
Just last Friday, Minister for Skills, Senator Chris Evans announced a joint commitment with South Australian Premier, Jay Weatherill, to reform the States vocational education and training system.
This will mean that, for the first time in SA, there will be government subsidies for Diploma and Advanced Diploma students so that they can defer payment of their upfront fees through study-now-pay-later loans.
As a result, more South Australian students will have access to world class training that will set them up for the jobs of the future.
I note Premier Weatherills announcement last week that a bipartisan committee will be set up to look at establishing a State Future Fund to share the benefits of the mining boom.
And it is encouraging to see a bipartisan approach to explore this proposal in South Australia if only the Federal Liberal Party would come to the table too and agree that the mining boom should be used for more than just lining the pockets of wealthy miners.
Economic transformations have typically spanned generations.
But today, the speed of change means transformations occur over years, not decades.
But, when we look through the history books, we can often see key pivotal points.
And I believe this is one of them.
The economy in ten years will be different to the one we see today, and its different today to what we saw 10 years ago.
I believe we are embarking on a very exciting chapter.
This is a time for us to make the right choices.
To choose to manage change and not to fear it.
To find optimism, not dwell in anxiety.
To look to the opportunities ahead.
We can make our future secure because of Asia, not despite Asia.
This is the great opportunity of our time.
Thank you.